Blog
Ideas, method and updates on portfolio analytics and informed investing.
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The portfolio that returned more isn't the better one: risk-adjusted return
Two portfolios, same gain, but one let you sleep and the other didn't. The Sharpe ratio explains why return alone is a half-truth — and where even it stops telling the truth.
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A thousand futures in one chart: reading a Monte Carlo simulation without fooling yourself
The fan chart doesn't predict the future — it draws its distribution. What the median and percentiles mean, why the numbers shift every run, and what the model leaves out.
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The math of recovery: why a −50% doesn't come back with a +50%
Losses and gains aren't symmetric. The recovery table, volatility drag, and why containing the downside matters more than chasing the upside.
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The diversification that isn't there: how many companies do you really own?
Three ETFs don't make three bets. Overlap, look-through and the effective number of holdings: how to measure a portfolio's real diversification.
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Backtesting: what it can really tell you (and how it can fool you)
Testing a strategy on the past is the most honest way to challenge it — provided you know the four traps: overfitting, survivorship, look-ahead and costs.
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The efficient frontier: what it really tells you (and what it doesn't)
The chart that sums up a portfolio's risk/return trade-off: how to read it, what the optimum point is, and why it isn't a promise about the future.
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